Results from a nearly 20,000-strong opinion poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN andThe Hindu indicate that ‘development and the economy’ and ‘price rise’ will dominate voter concerns in 2014. Corruption comes in at a distant fifth, just half as important to voters as ‘development and the economy’.
Moreover, these numbers hold strong, with small variations, across income groups and social categories. ‘Development and the economy’ is the top concern for all groups including Muslims, except women for whom ‘price rise’ is the greatest concern; unsurprising in a country in which women still do the lion’s share of household work.
With the International Monetary Fund lowering India’s growth projections for this fiscal year to 5.6% and food price inflation escalating further towards the end of June when the survey was conducted, it seems only logical that the economy and price rise were of greatest concern to voters. The perception of the economy is largely fair or ‘bad’, with just over 20% seeing the economy in “very good” or “good” shape.
Respondents from western and central India are more positive about the state of the economy than those in the north, east and south. But with the rupee in trouble and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warning that there’s a tough year ahead, the UPA has reason to worry that respondents, especially those better off and those living in cities, viewed the BJP as being better at handling economic crises than the economist-led Congress. More people reported being satisfied with their personal financial conditions than dissatisfied — 59% as against 34% — but this satisfaction rating has been dropping sharply since 2011. The poor report consistently lower satisfaction with their financial situation than the rich in all surveys. Across the spectrum, most seem to agree inequality has risen.
Although income and consumption expenditure have risen and poverty, as the latest Planning Commission figures show, has fallen, the picture on real wages is at best mixed, but with substantial declines in several sectors. But high inflation, especially of food, is eroding the purchasing power of many, particularly the poor. The urban poor, whose real wages have not had the bolstering effect of an employment guarantee scheme and do not produce any food…
